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Carpenter, N and Bausman, D C (2016) Project Delivery Method Performance for Public School Construction: Design-Bid-Build versus CM at Risk. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(10).
Chang, C and Chen, S (2016) Transitional Public–Private Partnership Model in China: Contracting with Little Recourse to Contracts. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(10).
Chen, C, Wang, Q, Martek, I and Li, H (2016) International Market Selection Model for Large Chinese Contractors. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(10).
Choi, J O, O’Connor, J T and Kim, T W (2016) Recipes for Cost and Schedule Successes in Industrial Modular Projects: Qualitative Comparative Analysis. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(10).
Choi, K and Lee, H W (2016) Deconstructing the Construction Industry: A Spatiotemporal Clustering Approach to Profitability Modeling. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(10).
de Castro e Silva Neto, D, Cruz, C O, Rodrigues, F and Silva, P (2016) Bibliometric Analysis of PPP and PFI Literature: Overview of 25 Years of Research. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(10).
Duzkale, A K and Lucko, G (2016) Exposing Uncertainty in Bid Preparation of Steel Construction Cost Estimating: I. Conceptual Framework and Qualitative C-I-V-I-L Classification. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(10).
Duzkale, A K and Lucko, G (2016) Exposing Uncertainty in Bid Preparation of Steel Construction Cost Estimating: II. Comparative Analysis and Quantitative C-I-V-I-L Classification. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(10).
Gwak, H, Son, S, Park, Y and Lee, D (2016) Exact Time–Cost Tradeoff Analysis in Concurrency-Based Scheduling. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(10).
Harper, C M, Molenaar, K R and Cannon, J P (2016) Measuring Constructs of Relational Contracting in Construction Projects: The Owner’s Perspective. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(10).
Moret, Y and Einstein, H H (2016) Construction Cost and Duration Uncertainty Model: Application to High-Speed Rail Line Project. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(10).
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: Quantitative methods; Construction costs; Construction duration; Uncertainty modeling;
- ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001161
- Abstract:
Transportation construction projects are often plagued by cost overruns and delays. Applying contingencies and estimating risks at the project level often do not capture the multiple uncertainties in the construction process of large transportation projects. Thus, there is a need for innovative approaches and tools to avoid large construction cost and duration overruns. To counteract such underestimations, a construction model and an uncertainty model are developed. In the construction model, the construction of the four main types of structures in rail lines (tunnels, viaducts, cuts, and embankments) is modeled bottom-up from the single activity to the entire rail line. In the uncertainty model, three sources of uncertainty (variability in the construction process, correlations between the costs of repeated activities, and disruptive events) are modeled jointly at the level of the single activity. In a Monte Carlo simulation environment, these uncertainties are propagated to the total construction cost and duration through the combination of the individual activity costs and durations. The construction and uncertainty models are incorporated in the decision aids for tunneling (DAT), which have been extended beyond tunneling to consider these different structures and uncertainty types. All this was applied in the Portuguese high-speed rail project, in which historical data and expert estimations were used to model the cost and duration uncertainty. This application allowed validation of the model and then illustration of a variety of effects: the three sources of uncertainty produce different cost and duration impacts depending on the type of structure, suggesting structure-specific mitigation measures. Most importantly, their cumulative impact causes significant increases in construction cost and duration of the modeled rail line compared with the deterministic estimates: specifically, 58% in the construction cost of tunnels, and 94% in the construction duration of cuts and embankments. The proposed construction and uncertainty models contribute and advance the body of knowledge: For the first time, variability, correlations, and disruptive events are quantitatively modeled in one simulation environment, and the impact of these uncertainty sources can be assessed jointly and compared. The proposed models also significantly contribute to practice by providing transportation agencies with a modeling tool to tackle cost and duration uncertainty in the construction of rail lines and other linear or networked infrastructure projects.
Namian, M, Albert, A, Zuluaga, C M and Jaselskis, E J (2016) Improving Hazard-Recognition Performance and Safety Training Outcomes: Integrating Strategies for Training Transfer. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(10).
Poshdar, M, González, V A, Raftery, G M, Orozco, F, Romeo, J S and Forcael, E (2016) A Probabilistic-Based Method to Determine Optimum Size of Project Buffer in Construction Schedules. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(10).
Ramaji, I J and Memari, A M (2016) Product Architecture Model for Multistory Modular Buildings. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(10).
Salas, R and Hallowell, M (2016) Predictive Validity of Safety Leading Indicators: Empirical Assessment in the Oil and Gas Sector. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(10).
Sveikauskas, L, Rowe, S, Mildenberger, J, Price, J and Young, A (2016) Productivity Growth in Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(10).